Wednesday’s GOP debate in Mesa, Ariz. – the 26th overall and the eighth in 2012 alone – occurs at a critical juncture in the Republican primary. With the field narrowed to four presidential hopefuls, the pendulum of success swinging from candidate to candidate, and President Barack Obama beginning to fully focus on his reelection campaign, none of the candidates can afford a less than stellar performance on Wednesday.
The import of Wednesday’s debate is only compounded by the cancellation of a forthcoming debate due to lack of participation. And of course, Super Tuesday is approaching on March 6, meaning Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) will have few opportunities to command the nation’s attention before citizens in 10 states cast their votes – after primaries in Arizona, Michigan, and Washington, of course.
Here’s what to expect Wednesday in Arizona’s debate:
Immigration: Perhaps the hot-button issue in Arizona, expect the debate to focus on immigration early and often. The candidates will likely have to defend their own positions regarding immigration as well as address the unique developments in Arizona itself.
Indeed, Arizona and its polarizing, audacious Governor Jan Brewer have been in the national limelight for some time now, given Brewer’s support for controversial immigration legislation aimed at curbing the flow of illegal immigrants from Mexico. The legislation, however, is vilified by civil rights and ethnic groups as sanctioned racial profiling. A more complex but related issue is the potentiality that Arizona is interfering in a federal matter – immigration is constitutionally the purview of the federal government. The candidates will almost certainly have to speak to that dynamic.
With regard to the candidates themselves, Romney has already endured some heat on the immigration issue from the Latino community and has been forced to address the alleged hiring of illegal immigrants. Meanwhile, Gingrich freely supports a robust deportation policy deeply unpopular with the Latino community. Expect these issues to rematerialize.
Contraception and Gay Marriage: Although the majority of the electorate is focused on economic issues, particularly jobs, far more questions will be geared towards divisive social issues like contraception and gay marriage than in earlier debates.
Contraception will certainly be discussed, given the recent coverage of Susan G. Komen’s decision to defund Planned Parenthood and the contentious Obama proposal for parochial churches and hospitals to provide free contraception. The GOP candidates, however, should welcome the pivot, Santorum in particular, given the consistent strategy of touting his historical social conservatism, but also Romney, whose dour economic predictions are seemingly belied by recent unemployment numbers. Indeed, it will be a crucial opportunity for the former Massachusetts governor, oft maligned as a Massachusetts moderate, to convince voters of his conservatism beyond the economic realm.
The candidates will probably be questioned on their gay marriage views. The issue has exploded across national airwaves as of late: Washington state became the seventh state to legalize gay marriage, while New Jersey Governor Chris Christie vetoed a similar measure and a federal appeals court in California ruled Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage, unconstitutional. All the Republican candidates have voiced their opposition to gay marriage, so the recent developments across the nation with regard to same-sex marriage will compel them to articulate their views and address how they would contend with the slew of state gay marriage activity.
Mud Slinging: The primary has been far from civil thus far, but as winter melts into spring with no candidates, not even the dead-revived-dead-revived-dead Gingrich, indicating any intention of dropping out, the attacks will only increase in frequency and severity. Even more portentous for the current crop is the widespread notion that the candidates are subpar and lack any real chance of unseating Obama. The call for an alternative, particularly Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Christie, has amplified in the last several weeks. The candidates will need to bolster their standing among the party elite and their deep-pocketed friends to have a real chance at securing the nomination.
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore
The Discussion
The look on Santorum's face while Ron Paul is trying to attack him is absolutely friggin priceless.
While all of these debates have been disturbing, tonight's will be a shit-show of the highest order.
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A few weeks ago, Romney was trying to convince the Cuban population of Florida that he was in touch with Hispanics, and that he was one of them.
Let's see how quickly he flip-flops tonight.
Good points Daniel, but can we really learn anything new from this cast of characters in their 30th debate? I expect that Santorum and Gingrich will try to be holier-than-thou with each other, while Mitt will try to make everyone forget the fact that he's a Mormon during all of the religious talk, just like he's tried to make everyone forget the signature piece of his tenure as governor: public health care.
Every time I see this bunch on stage, I ask myself: is this really the best the GOP has to offer?
The main problem with most debates is MSM wants entertainment. We need real issues discussed.
It is understandable that illegal immigration will be discussed. Shame on all liberals for supporting illegal immigrants and Obama for giving them Medicare and food stamps.
If the debate goes into contraception other than anecdotal, that is CNN attempting to paint a constitutional issue as women's health.
And a shame to any, even if it is every candidate of both parties, to get in the lives of individuals on marriage, religion or other social issues. The government is acting as though they are Eve forcing Adam to eat the fruit through legislation.
Loss of freedom starts by crossing the line into people's personal lives without provocation.
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Gingrich will chastise the moderator. Romney will talk about how he's always been so conservative. Santorum will talk about how his archaic personal views in no way would impact his style of governing, and Ron Paul will fight for air time as a forgotten entity.
In short, nothing new.
It will be interesting to see how Santorum responds to the attacks that he is going to receive as a currently perceived front-runner. It is my hope that Romney will refocus the debate on the economy and job creation. Perhaps speak to the proposals that the administration has put forward. The attacks from the Romney camp should be coming from his supporters and not from the candidate.
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If Santorum doesn't win, he'll blame it on Satan.
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50 Million on Food Stamps,
33% of American potential workforce no longer participating,
1 Trillion projected 2013 Deficits, 7 Trillion increase debt by 2023
and GOP candidates intend to focus on critical economic isssues such as Immigration, Contraception and Gay Marriage?
Maybe just maybe somebody might wish to remind the Republican Field, the economically disadvanted are largely eligible to vote and they would like to hear somebody's vision on How to restore the economy.
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Daniel, you write so well but I'm so tired of Republican idiot fests ;-)
I've managed to stay in a debate-free zone so far and don't plan to break the habit for this one. I'm going to rely upon our PolicyMic commentators to provide their usual pithy and profound insight the following day.
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I really hope you are wrong and the candidate focus on the issues that really matter: jobs and the economy. There are rumors that on Friday Mitt Romney will introduce some new economic polices in Detroit. Maybe we will get a preview at the debate.
This might be the last chance for candidate to shine on the national stage together. I hope it's not, but more and more people believe after tonight, the next debate will be the nominee v Obama. Any gaffs, abnormal reactions, odd statements, etc. will be focused on leading up to Super Tuesday. Hopefully that will not make for a dull debate where everyone is more concerned about screwing up than really fighting for the nomination.
This sets the tone for Super Tuesday. It's make or break time!
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