Millennials' Dilemma: The Generational Divide of Greece's Future

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Greece bailout, millennials, Euro

Millennials' Dilemma: The Generational Divide of Greece's Future

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Buried under all the nonstop Election 2012 coverage, Middle Eastern turmoil, and New York Knicks star Jeremy Lin’s magical NBA run, the EU finance ministers are currently deliberating whether or not to grant Greece another $172 billion bailout. In qualifying for it, the interim technocratic Greek government passed another round of stiff austerity measures that sparked more violence, protests, and rioting in recent weeks over the cuts in spending from public sector pensions to minimum wages.

A Greek default would have a strong effect throughout the rest of the continent by putting EU banks at risk to exposure, and indeed, could potentially pull the world economy down, too. Greece provides us with an extreme case scenario of many of the problems that are plaguing economies across the globe, including the United States.

I’ve been saying for years now that the sooner Greece and the EU divorce, the better off all parties will be. But an interesting trend I’ve noticed in recent weeks is the generational divide between plans for Greece’s future. I’ve concluded that while the older generation firmly intends to keep Greece in the EU, the millennials of Greece believe a future in the euro zone leaves no future for them.

To give you an idea of how bad things are in Greece, at one point their debt levels had surpassed 180% of GDP. That’s insane. Since the technocratic administration of Lucas Papademos took over, they’ve successfully lowered Greece’s debt to 160% of GDP, but in order to qualify for another EU bailout to avoid a default on loans due March 20, the EU stipulated that the government had to implement more austerity to try and lower Greece’s debt to a “manageable” 120% of GDP by 2020.

We didn’t have to wait too long to find out what the population’s reaction was to it. More protests, more riots, more torched buildings, and more cars flipped over.

Yet according to a survey by pollster MRB for Sunday’s Realnews newspaper, 72.7% of Greeks polled claimed that they want the country to stay in the euro. So how can a clear majority of the country both want to stay in the euro zone, yet protest the reforms the EU requires of them to do so?

I believe the answer is this: There’s a growing generational divide within Greece.

It would make sense that older generations with money tied into businesses, property, and government bonds would want the country to stay in the euro to protect their investments. If Greece were to leave the euro zone tomorrow and fall back on the drachma, it would open up a new door of options for the government to take (such as quantitative easing to make their exports very cheap and competitive) but at the price of a highly inflated drachma worth pennies. Property values and private equity within the country would be in free fall.

And let’s be honest, check out the countless videos of riot footage in Greece on YouTube, and you won’t see many middle-aged or senior citizen Greeks tossing Molotov cocktails at banks and riot police.

Instead, you’ll see it all being conducted by the youth of Greece, which should come as no surprise. In a country where unemployment has now risen to a whopping 20.9%, the youth of Greece is suffering from a 48% unemployment rate. Millennials of Greece could care less about property value and private equity at this point. They just want a job and career, and almost half of them have no opportunity in Greece right now.

I’m sure there’s plenty of blame to go around, starting squarely with their parents’ reckless, fiscal irresponsibility and unsustainable entitlement spending. But more interesting to watch is where this is all going. On a continent where the recent EU crisis has led to a rise in the polls for far right/nationalist parties, the recent troubles in Greece have produced an opposite effect. The country is scheduled to hold elections in April, and while the center right New Democracy Party leads the pack with a mere 28.5% average in February polls, an average 51.5% of the electorate support far left socialist and communist parties (split among four parties) while the far right/nationalist party, the Ultra Orthodox Rally, only shares an average 5% support.

I predict that the EU will indeed approve the $172 billion bailout, but the bigger question is where does Greece go from there? If things still don’t get better for its economy, the EU will be all out of options. A third bailout will lead to political suicide for the regimes in the rest of the continent. Some are speculating that the EU is already preparing to kick Greece out if/when they have to, leaving Greece to wonder how much more future it has in the euro zone.

But the youth is already left wondering whether they even have a future in Greece at all.

Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons

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John Giokaris

Born and raised in Chicago, John Giokaris is a graduate from Loyola University Chicago with two Bachelor's in Political Science & Journa...

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Fascinating piece. As a Greek millenial who typically lives and works abroad but currently finds herself in Thessaloniki, I still think the country's future will be brighter in the EU. A default can bring catastrophic consequences, from the short-term import-export issues and run on the banks to the cease of pension and public salary payments. That said, I like how your narrative differentiates the Greece we have been seeing in foreign news to the Greece I am experiencing on the ground right now. Violent episodes overshadow non-violent protest, as is the case with most movements, but it is important to highlight the peaceful attitude of Greek youth who are preserving some vision and optimism through the crisis.

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I'd like to see polling on Greek millennial attitudes toward personal responsibility vs government responsibility. Based on conversations with friends in Greek politics, I hear even from New Democracy people that the government must provide quite a lot. That attitude will only prolong the crisis.

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And this is why it's important that people pay taxes.

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  • Susan Kraykowski 3 months ago I keep pointing out to our "sh...

I keep pointing out to our "shrink it 'til it fits in a bathtub" political partisans that taxes pay for such things as soldiers' and veterans' salaries and benefits - not to mention equipment and protective gear - roads, bridges, schools, first responders and EMTs; making sure we all drive in the same direction on the highway and stop at stoplights; our food is safe to eat, water safe to drink and air safe to breathe...

Yes, it's important that people pay taxes - and their fair share of them, too!

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  • Lawrence Sampson 3 months ago Now Susan you know full well that e...

Now Susan you know full well that every single facet of society should be privatized and run on a pay as you go, for profit basis. That way, before you can breathe, walk outside to your car, leave your driveway, go to the grocery store, go to the doctor, etc., you will pay a user fee. The open and free markets will solve all of our problems and our miniscule government and virtually tax free society will be the light of all the world to follow and emulate. Freedom will ring in the hearts and minds of poor downtrodden ignorant non-Americans everywhere and they will want to immigrate here-legally of course, and enjoy the fruits of an uber capitolist society.

God bless America, and no one else.

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  • Susan Kraykowski 3 months ago Yes, Lawrence, I know that. The lat...

  • Lawrence Sampson 3 months ago I'm still recovering from the ...

  • Susan Kraykowski 3 months ago IOKIYAR It's OK If You Are ...

Yes, Lawrence, I know that. The latest over on the Maddowblog is this: Rick Santorum is against public education as an American value and wants all children home schooled AND the loonies are attacking the Girl Scouts (?!?!?) for advocating unAmerican activities. I am about to petition the Goddess to declare evolution a failure and to have another go at The Big Bang.

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I'm still recovering from the Santorum claim (if that isn't a simile for bs) that pre-natal care and amniocentesis leads to abortions. Why is this guy getting a free ride speaking about these issues so much when his wife had an abortion?

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IOKIYAR

It's OK If You Are Republican.

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Fascinating piece. As a Greek millenial who typically lives and works abroad but currently finds herself in Thessaloniki, I still think the country's future will be brighter in the EU. A default can bring catastrophic consequences, from the short-term import-export issues and run on the banks to the cease of pension and public salary payments. That said, I like how your narrative differentiates the Greece we have been seeing in foreign news to the Greece I am experiencing on the ground right now. Violent episodes overshadow non-violent protest, as is the case with most movements, but it is important to highlight the peaceful attitude of Greek youth who are preserving some vision and optimism through the crisis.

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  • John Giokaris 3 months ago Efharisto Roxanne! I appreciate you...

Efharisto Roxanne! I appreciate your voice here.

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Interesting article, John; I believe its premise has broader application than to just Greece alone, as indeed many (other) govts are (also) looking for answers & solutions to fiscal dilemmas.

I'm thinking that some Greeks, at least, may look for employment elsewhere (beyond Greece). As to whether or not the EU will rescind Greece's membership: I doubt that eventuality, as the EU is increasingly invested in Greece's future, plus it would establish a poor precedent for any subsequent EU dilemmas. They are more likely to survive this circumstance together than apart.

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Good article. re: "Where does Greece go from there?" - Peter Schiff thinks that the only reasonable answer is for more severe cuts in government spending. Switching to the dracma and inflating is a disastrous recipe http://goo.gl/Mq9QX - think 1920s Weimar Germany

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Very well done, and interesting perspective on the millenials' take. Would be interesting if some polling came out to support that, but it makes sense. Have you read the book Boomerang, by Michael Lewis? It has an eye-popping chapter on Greece and how it was managed from the start of the credit bubble on through 2010.

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  • John Giokaris 3 months ago I know Jeff, I wish the polling in ...

I know Jeff, I wish the polling in Greece were more thorough too. I was looking for something that cut up the opinions by age group. But I guess the pollsters can't stick around too long when they're asking these questions inbetween ducking Molotov cocktails and dodging the fire hoses!

And yes, I have heard of that book and others have recommended it. It's on my list.

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This is a great characterization of the situation in Greece. Well done!

Personally, I side with the millennials (maybe because I am one). In order for Greece to ever rebound, their debt needs to be liquidated and employment needs to increase. Jobs created by bailouts use the money to sustain the job. Once the bailout money is used up, the job will be destroyed unless new funding is found aka another bailout. the process is cyclical.

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  • George Schieck 3 months ago I agree with some of your observati...

I agree with some of your observations, Ian, but the underlying dilemma is structural, and debt liquidation does not directly address the structure (and may even invite a repeat performance of the entire dilemma). The current process of bailout(s) is workable, but painfully so - and can extend over many long years.

I think the optimum circumstance is a combination - the current austerity measures (and/or structural reform), along with debt forgiveness (or some sort of extended repayment schedule) to make it more manageable and less problematic for the local Greek economy.

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Interesting take on Greece. I definitely think that the generational divide is part of the problem, but something is always left out in the discussion about Greece over here that you barely touched on.

The government making all of the decisions in Greece is unelected. It is an interim government that the people do not support. In fact one of the caveats Papademos had before accepting his appointment as PM was that the new unelected government would not be in power for a short period of time.

Imagine for a moment that the same situation happened here (forget that it couldn't under the Constitution). What do you think would happen if an unelected President started forcing the will of China on us? I think it would be worse!

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  • John Giokaris 3 months ago Fair points David. Actually, I d...

Fair points David.

Actually, I did write about a hypothetical scenario of a technocratic admin coming to power in the U.S. (http://www.policymic.com/articles/2517/what-if-america-followed-greece-and-italy-and-applied-the-technocratic-solution). Funny thing is when Papademos first came into power, his approval rating in Greece was near 80% (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204190504577035873961454072.html). I think that was more out of frustration over the political gridlock between the 2 main parties in Greece than anything else.

Sound familiar?

In my article, I argued that unless we have 1 party rule in Washington, don't expect anything else to get done or any problems to get solved. Read it over and tell me what you think!

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  • David Gray 3 months ago Great article. I just posted my tho...

Great article. I just posted my thoughts there. To sum up, if a technocrat took over the government as was done in Greece without elections taking place, there would be a second American revolution.

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