In the grand arena of presidential politics, public perception and approval is everything. The lower the approval rating, the less likely people will show up to vote for that candidate. No matter what the efforts or intentions may be of the incumbent president at the time, if the crowd is against you, nothing else may matter.
President Barack Obama is gearing up for this years’ general election. While attempting to downplay the rumors that his candidacy for reelection will be the first one with a budget of nearly a billion dollars, Obama will no doubt have an arsenal at his command that will give any would-be Republican challenger a few bloody noses before November. However, if Obama’s approval ratings remain under 50%, all the money in the world might not save him.
The strategy for conservatives seems clear: Keep his approval low. To do this, Republicans will not need to release false document in an attempt to smear Obama’s character, similar to what Dan Rather did in 2004 disputing George W. Bush’s military service. All they need to do is to again and again remind the public why the president has lost his popularity.
Approval ratings are everything in an election year. Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush all had approval ratings under 50%. The other thing they all had in common? They all also lost their bid for a second term. Fifty Percent is the magic mark. If you’re above that heading into an election year, you’re chances remain promising. This precedent is not without exception. President Harry Truman ran and won reelection in 1948, with an approval rating in the high 30’s. However, that is the only exception.
Every other president since polling like this began including Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had an approval rating above 50% throughout their re-election year.
Obama’s poll numbers give Republicans cause for hope. As of January 29th, Gallup shows his approval rating at 45%. And there are other indications of an uphill battle. As of last week, only 18% polled were satisfied with the direction of the country.
The CBO recently released a report stating how unemployment could go above 9% again, a terrible sign for Obama. His approval ratings on the economy are a mere 36%. On top of all of that, his signature legislative achievement, ObamaCare, is still very unpopular.
This would probably be the first and only time that Obama would ever want to be compared to George W. Bush instead of Jimmy Carter.
Approval and disapproval are everything. Being a member of an unpopular party can hurt you even if you’re not the individual that everyone is angry with. Obama won his first term in 2008 in large part by campaigning not against his opponent Senator John McCain (R-Ariz), but by campaigning against the outgoing president George W. Bush.
Towards the end of his presidency, Bush’s approval ratings were barely in the low 30’s. During the 2008 campaign, Obama quipped during a speech that McCain was running for George W. Bush’s “Third Term.” Many didn’t realize it, but by linking the popular senator to the unpopular outgoing president, Obama had put the final nail in McCain’s coffin months before the election ever took place.
Now the tables have turned, and it’s Obama who is struggling with his poll numbers. At the time of the inaugural, Obama’s approval was in the high 60’s. That number has dropped over 20 points. If Obama can’t climb above 50% by mid-summer, the chances of his re-election will dwindle.
Pollsters from both sides of the aisle like Dick Morris and Doug Schoen, have both talked about the difficulty of a candidate winning with approval ratings under 50%. Others, such as DNC Chairperson Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, claim that despite any unfavorable ratings the president might have, no Republican is up to the challenge of defeating him.
This year, the GOP nominee may not be the issue. If Republicans want to take back the country and help right the its economic course, all they need to do is constantly remind the public why they turned on the president in the first place. Obama and his surrogates can show all of the Paul Ryan look-alikes pushing granny off the cliff that they want, and it won’t matter. If his approval numbers are low, his support will be as well.
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The Discussion
You point out Truman as the exception that proves the rule, but one of the reason Truman won was because he ran against the "do nothing" congress. With the approval ratings of obstructionist congressional republicans hovering around 20% I believe we are poised for a repeat of 1948.
Yay, go red team! go blue team!
Sadly in reality it is irrelevant who will win because Wall Street owns both horses.
Excellent points Jesse. I think that Romney's advantage in this election is that he isn't a career politician. His experiences as a business man have given him more than ample knowledge of the private sector. Leadership wise, he seems to have the character to get things done. I think that with the current unemployment rate, his win against Obama is practically guaranteed.
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The problem is that republicans have to offer something different.
Romney is not something different.
The reasons WHY Obama is losing approval ratings is what is important. And that is due to his continuation of the Bush policies. He was supposed to be change, and he wasn't.
He kept the wars going - so will Romney.
He signed the NDAA - so would Romney.
He signed the Bailouts - so did Bush, so would Romney.
He's been against the civil rights of the people - so is Romney.
He did Obamacare - so did and would Romney.
You have to offer something different to take advantage.
Jesse, I don't want to fault you here, but your conclusion strikes me as a bit Madden. "Here's a guy that when he runs, he goes faster." Of course!
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Jesse, I think it’s a bit glib or just wistful thinking to hold that “..this year, the GOP nominee may not be the issue.”
Also, if Boehner’s response of “we can do better” to the improvement in employment figures, a chant that then echoed across the conservative spectrum, is all the GOP can muster to counter Obama’s rising approval rating he really does not have a lot to worry about.
I’m not saying this is a good thing. I would rather see him either challenged more convincingly or facing a better opponent than what’s now on offer. I feel the same about all incumbents on both sides; I’d like to see them all sent packing. I even contemplated voting for Romney until I learned he picked John Bolton as an adviser.
Yup. Obama has no competition whatsoever.
There seems to be a ton of conservative confidence and cockiness in this thread and in this article. That's totally fine! I'm happy for you. I disagree strongly (and personally predict about a 5% Obama win), but whatever.
But please, please, please, please, grant me this:
If Obama wins, he did not "steal" it. Do not couch your political science arguments about the economy/popularity/etc with a finishing touch like "Unless ACORN steals the election for him."
Conspiracies get us no where. Debate can't happen when one side or the other alleges conspiracy.
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Truth and correct Jesse! (I see the Obama apologetics are here in force)
Obama hasn't even been hit with the truth from the Ron Paul crowd. The only way Obama could win is by "buying" the election through his special interest money. 2008 was a grass roots year because of the unpopular ex (yes!) president Bush. Bush's third term has become Obama in the flesh. Obama has maintained, not only Bush's personnel in many places, but also his policies. Except for extremist environmental and ACA (both of which are not popular except in the extreme left), Obama has failed miserably to lead from behind with excuses for all. His assault on the Constitution is beyond the pale. His war in Libya is now a civil war and spreading war in the region. No BO!
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Obama himself has acknowledged the unemployment rate would go "up and down." The question is, what's Romney's Plan B if there is a sustained sense that the economy is recovering after all.
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Some Presidents have a specific following that is independent of the numbers. Bush had the religious right and a war that helped him get re-elected and Obama has those who idolize him. Even if he is vulnerable, which he is, the sliver of committed voters will put him over the top. That is hard to beat!
Likewise, unemployment is projected to continue to decline, as such his ratings will rise.
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It's tough to say, but the "tipping point" approval rating is probably around 47% to win.
There's a theory out there that approval ratings tend to react to the public's perception of the opposition as an election approaches. For example: once John Kerry because the nominee and Americans could see the alternative (an alternative that they didn't much like), Bush's ratings began to rebound.
I mostly agree with your assertions here, with one exception. It seems the Republican field is simply too weak this time around to take advantage of Obama's up and down numbers. I am far from sold on Obama, but there isn't a single GOP candidate that has so much as made me think twice about voting for him.
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Home run Jesse. Some excellent research here.
Obama's approval rating will obviously depend on economic performance & job creation. While it's certainly good news for him that unemployment's moving down, the part no one wants to mention is the fact that a record number of people have completely given up looking for work. Labor force participation is at 63.7% - a 30 year low. The same CBO report mentioned the real unemployment rate's over 10% if you maintain the same base number. Personally though I think if Obama & the Democrats make sure no spending cuts are enacted in welfare & food stamps throughout 2012, they can maintain this artificial drop in unemployment right into re-election...
But as you pointed out, it's all public perception.
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Picking out snapshots of data ignores the trends that poli sci research reveals as more important. The rate of decrease in Unemployment is a much stronger predictor than unemployment in general. 2 months of good jobs reports is good news for Obama. Consider the latest NBC/WSJ poll:
Right Track/Wrong Track is up 26 points from October.
Obama's approval is net positive for the first time since last summer.
Obama's handling of the economy is up 13 points from October.
Dem party favorability, generic congressional ballot, and heads-up vs. all GOP frontrunners all put Dems way up.
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This is close to the logical fallacy of presenting a sign as a cause. People don't disapprove of him because the ratings are low, but the ratings are low because people disapprove. The ratings indicate dissatisfaction they don't cause it. Let's make sure we realize that the approval ratings aren't "everything," the policies are. If the President's policies are publicly effective the rating goes up. The ratings reflect the effect of policy.
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.....wow how misleading. The shrub's approval rating was 29% when 9/11 happened. America's propensity to rally around its president during wartime only insured another razor thin and conspicuous win for him in the following election. Following 8 straight months of job growth, even exceeding expectations this last month, Obama's numbers continue to tick upward. With the devastated economy that Bush created being the only trick pony the GOP has to harp about, this does not bode well for them. Remember terrorism, how they were the only party to keep us safe even tho the worst attack happened on their watch? We don't hear anything about that anymore since Obama's kicked butt and taken names. Funny how repugs don't want to admit that either.
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The only way the Republicans will win is if Ron Paul gets the nomination, he is the only candidate that is different. Obama and the rest of the GOP is just more of the same.
Jesse: you make a good case. And props for including good ole' Truman v. Dewey as an exception that proves the rule, so to speak (btw, if you're ever in Kansas City, MO, the Truman Library in Independence is a great place to visit - no kidding!).
I also point to Truman's surprise win as a cautionary example to beware of polls and punditry. I've said this before and probably will bore all of you to stupor before the elections by repeating it: political polling is at BEST directional. At its worst, of course, it's completely bogus.
As a case in point: watch what happens in today's Nevada caucuses. Last night's polling had the candidates in this order: Romney/Gingrich/Santorum/Paul - mirroring their national standings. My personal predictions are as follows: Paul, Gingrich, Romney, Santorum. Not that I can't be wrong - I probably AM - but I'll betcha the polls are too!
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