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Presidential Polls 2012: 10 Romney Donors Say Romney Has No Chance at Winning, and the Data Proves Them Right

Mitt Romney’s own people don’t believe he’ll win the election against Barack Obama in November — this new revelation comes from a completely qualitative polling of 10 Romney fundraisers, all of whom don’t think Romney has a chance.

Here's the scene as reported by Politico: To get a flavor of the challenge before them, a top donor said that after Romney spoke at a fundraising breakfast at the Hilton New York on Friday, a “will-Mitt-win?” poll was taken at one table of 10 men, each of whom had paid at least $2,500 to attend, and some of whom had raised as much as $50,000 for the campaign. Not a single man said yes.

Wow. Crushing.

Backing up this story is the data: New polling shows Obama holds a 51% to 43% lead over Romney among likely voters, as the Nov. 6 general election is now under 50 days away … the home stretch in election 2012.

According to the Pew polling data, Obama also holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including himself four years ago. Ruh-roh, Romney.

In every elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.

That’s a big ouch for the GOP.

Politico further reports that Romney might have already kind of thrown in the towel, explaining that he Romney himself may believe he can’t win the upcoming Oct. 3 first presidential debate against Obama.

Many analysts believe that, with Romney polling so low, the first presidential debate will be maybe his last big chance to unseat Obama from his polling high horse. The debate will be critical to establish Romney as the better candidate, but Romney doesn’t think he can complete that mission

As Politico explains: "The plan, described by top aides and advisers in interviews this week, is an acknowledgment that Romney is in enough of a hole that he cannot depend on the presidential debates to turn his candidacy around. In fact, Romney, who recently did five mock debates in a 48-hour period to practice, has confided to advisers that it may be hard to win a debate because every attack against President Barack Obama will seem stale while the attacks on him will seem fresher and newsier to a hostile media."

Double ouch.

And now the triple ouch, a measure that shows the mood of election 2012: Democrats are generally more excited than Republicans for election 2012.

Dem enthusiasm for election 2012 has skyrocketed, with almost three-quarters of swing-state Democrats saying they are very excited to vote, according to a poll released Thursday.

Seventy-three percent of Democrats in swing states are excited to call their ballots, up from fifty-three percent in June, according to Gallup. The numbers and spike are smaller for Republicans, with 64% saying they’re excited, an increase from 55%.

The numbers are similar on a national level — 68% of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting, compared to 62 percent of Republicans, Gallup reported.

And, for the candidate who is looking to sway over undecided or unaffiliated voters (Mitt Romney) here’s a stat that will hurt come election time: Independents aren’t really that inspired. Only 43% in swing states are excited to vote, up from a quarter in June. Nationally, 38% of independents are enthusiastic about voting, a nine percentage point increase.

Woo-hoo (said lack-lusterly).

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